Thunder Bay – If Your Going To Read The Report, Then Read The Whole Report

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Hobbs said he made the statements before he was informed and had since changed his mind after getting the facts.

Phase 2 of the project projects annual spending impacts from the event centre to be around $17 million with 380 full-time jobs not including another $6 million directly from visitors, including conferences. – Tbnewswatch

Keep reading Keith and you get to this page…..General Assumptions and Limiting Conditions

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See previous post here.  Page 99 of the Phase 2 Feasibility Study report is never mentioned by anyone when touting facts and stats from that report.  Jobs and the economic impact of the event centre project.

But that information comes with caveats.  Big time caveats and those must also be considered when weighing the pros and cons of spending $100 million on a hockey rink.

Since future events are not subject to precise projections,
some assumptions will not materialize in the exact form presented by our analysis. In addition, other unanticipated events and circumstances may occur which could influence the future performance of a Thunder Bay Events Centre. Therefore, the results achieved in future operating periods will vary from the analysis of prospective market and financial conditions set out therein. While there is no recourse to predicting these matters with certainty apart from informed and reasoned judgments, it must be stated that future events may lead to variations in Project performance which may materially alter Project results. PwC does not warrant that actual results achieved during the Projection Period will be the same, in whole or in part,
as those shown in the Projection. The Projection is based on hypotheses and there is a significant risk that actual results will vary, perhaps materially, from the results projected.

Information furnished by others upon which all or portions of this report are based, is believed to be reliable, but has not been verified in all cases. No warranty is given as to the accuracy of such information- Phase 2 Feasibility Study Thunder Bay Event Centre

There is lots more of this shit on page 99.  Now…does this part of the report instill a huge vote of confidence in those job and economic impact statistics in that report?

No and it should not because it is very likely that none of those economic predictions will come true.  None.

So why read the report? No reason for it at all but if you chose to read the report and then reference data and stats from the report , then you need to understand at least one major point.  The Phase 2 Feasibility Study report is a document that needs to be understood that context is everything when it comes to this report.  Just tossing out  numbers taken from specific pages mean absolutely nothing if the General Assumptions and Limiting Conditions, page 99 of the report, that explain the significance or insignificance of all those numbers are also not mentioned.

Its like buying a lottery ticket and figuring you are going to be rich.  That its a sure thing that you are going to win because you have a ticket with a number on it and a consultant told you that you could win…..if your number is drawn.  That is true but the odds of winning are something like one in 14,000,000. Information that provides some context to the consultant’s statement. Information that you need to know before you go out and start spending the money that the consultant said that you could win. And that information for the Phase 2 of the Feasibility Study report is found on page 99.

Page 99 gives perspective to all those claims by Hobbs and Commisso about  jobs galore and a huge positive economic impact to the city if/when the $100 million event centre is built.

The report you should read is this one.   This one is based on historical events.  What actually happened.  As for consultants watch this.

As for job creating and economic impacting projects, how about Prince Arthur’s Landing?  The place is empty most of the time. Deserted. It has not come close to realizing all the economic projections quoted in all the reports leading up to that project’s construction.

Jobs? Yes…a few jobs on the city payroll ($600,000 plus annually) and some low paying restaurant jobs located in an very expensive city owned building. I wonder what rent the city is charging the restaurateur?

$60 million plus and the project is still not complete.  Now the City wants to spend another $25 million of taxpayer dollars to move the Thunder Bay Art Gallery down there to try and boost the anemic park visitor numbers.

Look at PAL.  The portion of the development that the public actually use (barely) at all, and where the few created jobs are located,  could have been built for maybe $15 million? $20 million tops.  That means that over $40 million (two-thirds) was spent on nothing really.

That is what is happening with the multiplex, event centre or event centre and convention centre or whatever it called this week.  We are being asked to spend a lot of extra money on nothing really.  Nothing that will create new jobs or have any real positive economic impact on the City or the downtown area.

 

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