Ontario – Computer Modelling Needs Lots And Lots Of Data

Province to release ‘stark’ COVID-19 models on Friday

The province is investing millions into mental health supports for Ontarians as it prepares to release COVID-19 modeling numbers on Friday that Premier Doug Ford says will be a ‘real wakeup call.’

“People will see some very stark figures tomorrow,” Ford said during his daily media briefing from Queen’s Park on Thursday. “I can’t give you the exact figures. I would rather rely on the medical professionals. They will tell the public exactly what they are telling me. They will be very clear on where we were, where we are, and where we could be.”

The modeling will be based on data collected by the chief medical officer in the province and Ford said releasing the numbers is an effort to be as transparent as possible and make the people of Ontario understand why the government is making certain decisions.

“We have to be transparent no matter how tough the message is going to be tomorrow,” Ford said. “We are going to tell people exactly what we know. You are going to see the exact same figures and modeling we have seen.”

“I want to make sure people understand the situation that we are in.” -tbnewswatch

read full article here

You are going to see the exact same figures and modeling we have seen.”

“I want to make sure people understand the situation that we are in.”

There is no way computer models are going to be accurate with the limited data that our medical system has collected. Right now, only a few people are being tested for the virus. Unless you fall inside a narrow range of ‘at risk’ people, you don’t get tested. Why not?  Not enough tests to go around.

Until everyone gets tested, or at least a significant number of people to provide an accurate representation of the population, any predictions will be worthless. Its a fact.  South Korea is a good example of why that is.

There are no secrets for the success of the South Korean model.

South Korea was producing test kits already in early January, and by March was testing 100,000 people a day, after establishing strict control of the whole population – to Western cries of “no protection of private life”. That was before the West embarked on Planet Lockdown mode. – Pepe Escobar, Strategic -culture.org

South Korea was all about testing early, often and safely – in tandem with quick, thorough contact tracing, isolation and surveillance.

Covid-19 carriers are monitored with the help of video-surveillance cameras, credit card purchases, smartphone records. Add to it SMS sent to everyone when a new case is detected near them or their place of work. Those in self-isolation need an app to be constantly monitored; non-compliance means a fine to the equivalent of $2,800.

South Korea tests a huge number of people. By doing so, that country has managed to get control and limit the spread of the virus. That will happen here.

Sooo, when Queens Park and Ottawa re;ease these scary computer modelling scenarios, remember that they are in all likelihood bullshit.  No reason to panic. Just keep on doing everything you can to protect yourself and family.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

One Response

  1. look out
    look out at | | Reply

    Dougie wants us to listen to the data/computer modelling. Well, the data is nothing more than best guesses and rainbows. It was a real wake up call regarding the BS surrounding face masks and why we don’t need them to now why we should have them to sorry we don’t have any to you need to make your own so why should we even listen to anyone telling us what is good for us. Now the big brother down south wants to keep and hoard all the n95 and surgical masks and products produced by 3M for their citizens. Gee I wonder why. Yes, the new normal of this pandemic is distrust and disdain. I have lost all faith and trust in the government and health departments. That trust and faith is hard to win back.

Leave a Reply

enter code *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.