Ontario – Second Wave Or Still First Wave?

Ontario ‘officially in second-wave of COVID-19,’ says Ford

\With cases of COVID-19 surging in Ontario, Premier Doug Ford said Ontario is officially in the second-wave, and how severe this wave will be depends on the actions of everyone in the province.

“Ontario is now in the second wave of COVID-19,” Ford said during his daily media briefing on Monday. “We know this wave will be more complicated, complex, and worse than the wave we faced earlier this year.”

The declaration follows Ontario reporting 700 new COVID-19 cases on Monday, which is the highest daily reported number of cases since the pandemic began.

The majority of new cases are in Southern Ontario and 60 per cent of cases are in people under the age of 40.

Forecasts indicate the province could see 1,000 new daily COVID-19 cases by mid-October with no interventions.

Ford said several times on Monday that the second-wave will be worse than the first wave in the spring.

“What we don’t know yet is how bad the second wave will be,” he said. “The reality is it’s up to each of us. Our collective actions will determine if we face a wave or a tsunami.”

Dr. David Williams, chief medical officer of health, said he does not believe it will be a tsunami and the province is experiencing more of an undulating wave, but it will be up to the people of Ontario to keep it from reaching those levels.

“Right now, we are anticipating that as we keep going it could be a lot worse than the first wave,” he said. “We like to hope we can keep on top of this and ask the public to really hunker down and see if we can flatten this curve like we did last time.”

Testing is also up compared to the first wave, when the province was struggling to conduct 10,000 daily tests. It is now conducting approximately 41,000 tests per day.

Hospitalizations have remained low despite the surge in cases, but Williams said it usually takes a week or two to see if more people are admitted to hospital following a new rise in cases. – tbnewswatch

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Testing is also up compared to the first wave, when the province was struggling to conduct 10,000 daily tests. It is now conducting approximately 41,000 tests per day.

This is a very important fact that greatly effects the number of positive test results reported. In fact, it could explain the jump in numbers.

Four times as many tests will find four times as many positive cases without an increase in the virus’s virility.

We need to know the percentage of tests results that are positive now compared to the percentage of tests that were positive then.  That will tell you if we are in a second wave or not.

Also remember that as many as 30% of the positive results may be false. The test is not very accurate.

Hospitalizations have remained low despite the surge in cases, but Williams said it usually takes a week or two to see if more people are admitted to hospital following a new rise in cases.

?  According to our government, numbers of positive tests have been going up for quite a while already. Enough for Ford to tighten restrictions on gathering limits, close bars and restaurants earlier and shut down strip clubs.  I would think that we would have seen a rise in hospitalizations already.

Once again, we are not given enough information to tell us exactly what is happening.

No need to panic. Educate yourself. Assess the situation. Act accordingly.

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